Financial Markets                      03/16 09:34

   

   NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices are down, and stocks are up Monday, though such 
moves have been quick to reverse since the war in Iran began.

   The S&P 500 jumped 1.2% and was on track for its best day in five weeks. The 
Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 513 points, or 1.1%, as of 10 a.m. Eastern 
time, and the Nasdaq composite was 1.3% higher.

   The driver for markets once again was the price of oil. A barrel of 
benchmark U.S. crude fell 5.3% to $93.57, easing some pressure off the economy 
after topping $102 earlier in the morning. Brent crude, the international 
standard, fell 2% to $101.09 per barrel after earlier getting as high as 
$106.50.

   It's a reprieve, for now at least, after oil prices spiked from roughly $70 
before the United States and Israel began their attacks on Iran. In response, 
Iran has effectively halted traffic through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, where 
a fifth of the world's oil typically sails from the Persian Gulf to customers 
worldwide. That has oil producers cutting production because their crude has 
nowhere to go.

   The worry in financial markets is that if the strait remains closed for a 
long time, it could keep enough oil off the market to drive inflation up to a 
debilitating level for the global economy.

   President Donald Trump over the weekend demanded that other countries hurt 
by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz "take care of that passage" and said his 
country "will help - A LOT!"

   European countries, meanwhile, demanded to know more about Trump's plans for 
the war on Iran and when the conflict might end as they weighed his demand.

   The U.S. stock market has a track record of bouncing back relatively quickly 
from military conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere, as long as oil prices 
don't stay too high for too long. Many professional investors are still 
expecting that to be the case again, which has helped keep U.S. stock prices 
near their record levels.

   For all its dramatic swings, including several that struck hour to hour, the 
S&P 500 is still only about 4% below its all-time high.

   Escalations have been mounting quickly, to be sure, but that could suggest 
"both sides are facing growing constraints that may prevent a long conflict," 
according to Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells 
Fargo Investment Institute.

   On Wall Street, stocks of companies with big fuel bills helped lead the 
market thanks to falling oil prices. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings steamed 
4.2% higher, while United Airlines climbed 3.8% to trim their sharp losses for 
the year so far.

   National Storage Affiliates leaped 28.5% after Public Storage said it would 
buy its 69 million rentable square feet in an all-stock deal valuing it at 
$10.5 billion. Public Storage fell 2.5%.

   Dollar Tree rose 4.3% after reporting a stronger profit for the latest 
quarter than analysts expected, even as fewer shoppers visited its stores.

   Nebius Group, a Dutch AI cloud company, saw its stock that trades in the 
United States leap 14% after announcing a five-year infrastructure contract 
with Meta Platforms that could be worth up to $27 billion. Meta rose 2.8% and 
was one of the strongest forces lifting the S&P 500, along with other Big Tech 
stocks.

   In stock markets abroad, indexes rose in Europe, including a 1% return for 
Germany's DAX, following a mixed finish in Asia.

   Stocks jumped 1.4% in Hong Kong but slipped 0.3% in Shanghai.

   In the bond market, Treasury yields eased as falling oil prices took some 
pressure off inflation worries. A report showing a weakening of manufacturing 
activity in New York state also weighed on yields.

   The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.22% from 4.28% late Friday.

   Yields, though, are still higher than they were before the war, when the 
10-year Treasury yield was at just 3.97%. Traders have pushed back their 
expectations for when the Federal Reserve could resume its cuts to interest 
rates because of the spike in oil prices caused by the war.

   Such cuts would give the economy and job market a boost, and they're 
something Trump has angrily been calling for, but they would also worsen 
inflation. Traders see virtually no chance the Fed will announce a cut to rates 
when its next meeting concludes on Wednesday, according to data from CME Group.

   ___

   AP Business Writers Matt Ott and Elaine Kurtenbach contributed.

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